Posts Tagged ‘Home Loans’

Risk, Psychology, and the Housing Market

Monday, November 28th, 2011

One reason the housing market has been slow to recover is the massive glut of houses still available on the market. One reason there is a glut is because asking prices haven’t dropped as quickly as market values.

The excellent Planet Money blog explored this phenomenon recently, and learned a few things about the psychology of purchase and investment risk:

As it turns out, our brains feel losses and gains unevenly: Losing feels worse than winning feels good. In a down [housing] market, people really don’t want to sell, because selling feels like losing.

For example, [a study] compared two basically identical condos. The owners of both had paid off their mortgages. But one had bought at the peak of the market. That person, he found, would stubbornly ask for a higher price, and keep his condo on the market longer than the other person, who had bought at a lower price.

“The overall magnitude of this effect is very big,” Mayer told me. “This is an important factor in how housing markets operate.”

But this psychological quirk is also slowing the healing process. It makes people reluctant to lower the asking price on their homes, which in turn contributes to the glut of houses on the market. It’s unclear why our brains are wired this way — why we overemphasize losses.

Interesting stuff. The report didn’t attempt to answer why the brain overemphasizes losses, but it seems pretty obvious:  Winning $100,000 at a casino would be nice. Losing $100,000 would for most people likely be devastating. Earning a 10 percent return on an investment of your life savings would be nice. Losing your life savings can be ruinous.

In other words, while it’s nice to have more, loss can be devastating. Holding onto what we have is more important than gaining more. That fear of loss trumps desire for gain seems like a built-in survival instinct.

This applies to the housing market as well. On the buyer’s side, it’s understandable that some families might not be in the mood to jump right back in to the market after the last collapse (burn me once, fool on me; burn me twice…), or at least not make as big of a splash. The extra $50,000 worth of house you could get by splurging just a little bit more might seem nice (and could pay off big in the long-run), but not if there’s a decent chance that you’ll be underwater in three or four years. Betting big may be thrilling at the casino or dog track, but not when what you lose is where your wife, kids and dog call home. On the selling side, people might simply believe that time will heal old wounds, and if they wait long enough, eventually they’ll get their asking price.

Here at Texas Lending, we’re eager to help ease any fears that potential homebuyers in Texas might have. We’ve got a slew of affordable Dallas home loan, Houston home loan, and Austin home loan products — including home equity loans and home refinance loans.

More Good Texas Housing Market News on the Horizon

Monday, November 21st, 2011

Forgive us for talking so much about good news lately, but after so many years of false starts, bad indicators, and ever-present dark clouds on the horizon, it feels good to be focusing in some persistent green shoots. So check out these bits of (record-setting) good news. According to the excellent Modeled Behavior economics blog:

From Bloomberg:

Housing construction permits climbed last month to their highest level since March 2010, according to Commerce Department data, as the near record-low mortgage rates lured some buyers into the market.

The future pace of consumer spending ultimately will be decided by the growth of household income, which in turn is tied to the health of the job market.

And there, Herrmann saw some reason to be optimistic. He forecast that private-sector payrolls would rise an average 160,000 per month for the rest of this year and by 200,000 per month in the first four months of 2012. Private payrolls increased 104,000 in October.

In a sign that the job market may be improving, claims for unemployment benefits dropped to their lowest level in seven months in the week ended Nov. 12, to 388,000, Labor Department figures released yesterday showed.

Though actually most of this is driven by Multi-Family investment. As long as Europe doesn’t destroy the world – and it very well may – I expect Multi-Family starts to be posting record highs by the end of 2012.

And I mean record, never before in American history will construction be started on so many apartment complex units.

Lots and lots of encouraging statistics there. If stats make your eyes glaze over, I’ll recap:

  • The most construction permits issued in 18 months.
  • Between 160,000 to 200,000 private sector jobs are expected to be added each month for the next six months.
  • Unemployment claims dropped to a seven-month low.
  • Record-high home construction starts are expected in 2012.

Of course, a record rebound like this wouldn’t be possible without a huge crash in the first place, so this doesn’t mean the housing environment is better than it’s ever been before. It’s just a bit of a trampoline effect.

Part of the problem is that the house collapse really did devastate livelihoods for families who lost jobs, couldn’t afford their homes, and couldn’t sell their homes in order to move to new jobs. You can imagine the giant drag on an economic recovery this would create. But a collapse of that scale also effects — and can be exacerbated by — those who didn’t actually lose their homes or jobs.

For example, Modeled Behavior also forecasts a similarly robust rebound in auto sales, which, while not directly related to housing, is also an important indicator when looking for signs of an improving economy. And it’s an indicator that is similar to housing — many Americans stopped buying cars following the economic crash not because they didn’t need them, nor necessarily that they couldn’t afford them. It’s just that in an environment of deep uncertainty that followed the crash, many still-employed families decided to hold off on buying that new home or new car until they felt better about their own financial future. Fear, confusion and uncertainty are market irrationalities that can grind an already-sick economy to a halt.

Thus the current high hopes for a robust rebound.

If you’re one of those families that’s in position to buy a new home, now might be a great time to seriously consider doing so before prices begin to rise again. We can help with a comprehensive line of Houston home loans, Dallas home loans, and Austin home loans. Similarly, if you’ve been waiting to renovate your home (say… expanding your garage for that second car you’ve been putting off buying), our Dallas home equity loans, Houston home equity loans, and Austin home equity loans are a great tools for doing so.

Texas Entrepreneurship and Innovation: A Lone Star State of Mind

Monday, November 14th, 2011

A pair of reporters from The Atlantic took off on a road trip recently, winding 2,000 miles across the South in search of America’s next Silicon Valleys — i.e. places where innovators, pioneers, doers, dreamers and job creators are most likely to succeed.

The road trip didn’t quite make it all the way into the Lone Star State, stopping instead right at the border in Shreveport, Louisiana. But the lessons the reporters drew about what makes a start up-friendly city apply to Texas cities as well.

According to The Atlantic:

Here’s a big takeaway from all that driving and fried food: the mid-size southern city has some advantages over the big four cities (NYC, LA, DC, SF). For one, many of these communities offer substantial support in the form of tax credits, office space, incubators, and other more informal help. Second, everything is cheaper, especially real estate. Third, to build a company in one of these places is to become a part of it.

In other words, for innovators and entrepreneurs, the business climate in the South is rich, ripe, and ready for folks with big ideas to succeed.

This is true in Texas as well. In fact, Austin has long been nicknamed “Silicon Hills” for the plethora of startups that pop up each year in the capitol city. And Houston and Dallas are notoriously business-friendly cities.  According to CNN, Houston was the fourth best large city in America to launch a small business in 2009. Austin was ranked eighth. Beyond big cities, Killeen was the seventh best mid-size city, followed by Lubbock at 12, McAllen at 16 and El Paso at 17. Among small cities, Midland finished at No. 6, and Abilene came it at No. 15.

In each city, each of the conclusions drawn in The Atlantic about what makes a great start-up environment is true: Texas cities tend to welcome businesses with goody bags full of tax credits and other incentives (plus, taxes are already low). Office space is plentiful. And cost of living is low, making it easier for startups to attract top talent without having to blow all their investment capital on exorbitant salaries.

In other words, Texas is a great place to either move your business, or just come and start a new one. With a full range of Dallas home loan, Austin home loan, and Houston home loan options, we’re ready and waiting to help you and your employees make Texas home.

A Pair of Positive Texas Housing Market Indicators

Wednesday, November 2nd, 2011

Two bits of good news this week for folks waiting for the right time to apply for a mortgage in Dallas, Houston or Austin:

1. Consumption is up nationwide. According to Bloomberg:

The U.S. economy grew in the third quarter at the fastest pace in a year as Americans reduced savings to boost purchases and companies stepped up investment in equipment and software.

Gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced, rose at a 2.5 percent annual rate, up from 1.3 percent in the prior three months, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Household purchases, the biggest part of the economy, increased at a 2.4 percent pace, more than forecast by economists.

Consumption drives our economy, and it dropped with devastating speed when the economy crashed. Since then, people have been cutting back on expenses to pay off debts or build savings in case of job losses. And, of course, many folks put off buying a new home for a few years until situations improved (if they could even sell their home at all).  This is necessary, but makes for a slow recovery. Therefore, boosted consumption is an indicator that things might be turning around.

2. U.S. home prices increased in September more than expected. According to Business Week:

Sales climbed 5.7 percent to a 313,000 annual pace, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a gain to 300,000. The median price slumped 10 percent from September 2010, the biggest drop in more than two years. Another report showed demand for durable goods excluding transportation equipment climbed last month by the most since March.

The increase in home sales was paced by rising demand in the West and South, while other parts of the country slumped, showing an uneven market that is weighed down by competition from a glut of distressed, previously owned houses.

Of course, a handful of other statistics can be pulled out to show that we’re not quite out of the woods yet. Plus, external factors like the impending debt and banking crisis in Europe could undo the majority of our recent hard-fought gains. But, combined, these trends show that overall trends are looking up a bit — both in Texas and across the nation.

If you’ve been waiting to buy a home until prices bottom out, now might be the right time to do so before growth in prices really starts to pick up steam. If you’ve been waiting to buy a home until prices recover enough to sell your home, well… stay patient. A more favorable market for your situation might be just around the corner.

In the meantime, it might be a good idea to go ahead and start exploring our Dallas home loan, Houston home loans and Austin home loan options for more information. In a volatile market like this one, you’ll want to be ready to pounce when the window of opportunity that’s right for your family cracks open.

Recession Recap: Houston Housing Market

Monday, October 3rd, 2011

A hundred years ago, a handful of brave souls discovered that you could plop down a city on a mosquito-infested swamp and, apparently, spawn a deeply resilient housing market (even if a little bit prone to bubbles around the edges). We’ll explain.

As we mentioned last week, Houston mirrored the awesome August recently experienced by the Austin and Dallas housing markets. According to the Houston Chronicle:

The local housing market continued to favor buyers last month, although that may be changing.

At the end of August, there was a 7.1-month supply of homes for sale – meaning it would take that long to sell all the homes on the market based on recent activity, according to the Houston Association of Realtors. A year ago, the area had an eight-month supply. [...]

Single-family homes sales rose sharply in August, jumping 30 percent over last year, the association said. Sales totaled 5,543, marking the third straight monthly increase this year. All segments of this area’s housing market saw higher sales in August – from properties less than $80,000 to the $500,000 and above range. Townhouse and condominium sales jumped 19.5 percent.

Houston has several factors working in its favor. Simply put, it’s one of the most recession-proof cities in America. Let’s take a look at what makes the Bayou City tick:

1. Jobs

Houston has lots of ‘em. Unemployment in Houston is currently hovering somewhere around 8.6 percent, compared to 9.1 percent nationally. Why? Its strengths aren’t things like finance and real estate (which suffered severely in the 2008 crash). It’s energy, shipping and medicine.  America will always need ports. America will always need energy. America will always need healthcare.

Each of these sectors is volatile in their own way (especially energy), but they’re more resilient than most industries. Houston is in good shape until we all stop driving, aging, and ordering cheap goods from China.

2. Land

Houston has lots of land. Tons of land. It could expand all the way west to Austin and all the way north to Dallas if it wanted to. There’s simply nothing hemming it in.

Look at many of America’s classic cities: Manhattan. Los Angeles. San Francisco. Seattle. Each of these cities are largely walled in by some combination of a coast and mountains, limiting sprawl and driving up housing prices. Mountainous and coastal areas also pose expensive infrastructure challenges, limiting the availability of cheap, massive highways like the ones found all over Houston.

Houston can build and build and build — both houses and roads — keeping housing costs low.

3. Labor

Without getting into political issues, large immigrant populations do help fuel construction booms, especially in housing and infrastructure. And Houston has an excellent diversity of skill in its labor pool. When conditions are ripe for a housing boom, it can quickly tap into the labor supply needed to do it.

These factors, combined with all the other state-wide elements that make Texas an excellent place to start a business and the fact that the 1980s oil crisis culled many of the weaker businesses that would’ve collapsed in the 2008 economic crisis, make Houston abnormally resistant to a recession-fueled housing crisis. Here at Texas Lending, we’re proud to offer a full line of Houston home purchase loans, Houston home equity loans and Houston home refinance loans for folks looking to take advantage of this environment.

Of course, there are a couple negatives that limit home price growth in certain parts of the city as well, which makes housing both accessible and a poor investment. We’ll explore those — and similar negatives in Dallas and Austin — next week.

Strong August Housing Market Numbers Across Texas

Monday, September 26th, 2011

Building on last week’s review of the post-recession journey taken by the Austin housing market, more good news arrived this week.

According to the Austin Business Journal:

Single-family homes sold in the Austin area rose 33 percent in August from a year ago.

The new data from Austin Board of Realtors shows the total number of single-family homes sold last month totaled 1,978, and the median sales price was unchanged from last year at $200,000.

“With the impact of the homebuyer tax credits fully behind us, it’s encouraging to see three consecutive months of year-over-year growth in sales volume for Austin-area homes, particularly the strong growth seen late this summer,” said Judith Bundschuh, chairman of the Austin Board of Realtors.

According to the data, Austin outgained nation-wide single-family home sales, which rose 8.5 percent over July 2011, and 20.2 percent over August 2010. Nationwide prices, however, are still nearly 5.4 percent lower than a year ago.

This late-summer surge is similar to the one we noted in the Dallas-Ft. Worth housing market a couple weeks ago here at TexasLendingToday. In August, the North Texas market jumped by a whopping 27 percent, compared to a year ago. Not to be outdone, Houston posted a 30.2 percent increase over August of 2010.

Although we can think of about a hundred scenarios that could trigger a global recession and wipe out the nascent recovery we’ve seen here in Texas, this is a good sign for all involved. If you’ve been waiting until the market returns to normal strength to sell your home, that time could be coming soon. If you’ve been waiting to see if prices are going to further bottom out before buying, this could be an indicator that the time to buy is now.

At Texas Lending, we’re proud to offer a full line of Austin home loans, Dallas home loans, and Houston home loans. Texas is still a fantastic place to live — contact us for help making it your home.

Lone Star Recession Recap: Austin Housing Market

Monday, September 19th, 2011

The skyline in Austin never stopped morphing during the recession. Startups are flocking to the city, as well as hip heavyweights like Facebook and Google (who have both set up offices in Austin recently). Add in longtime employment hubs like Dell, plus employment anchors like the state government and the University of Texas (sources that are both stable and dynamic — meaning lots of people moving in and out, creating all sorts of real estate opportunities), and you’ve got a robust city determined to roll right through the recession.

So what does the housing market look like post-recession in one of America’s most recession-proof cities? A glance at the numbers says it’s in better shape than most cities, but not immune to broader economic problems. In fact, many Austinites have been in this situation before.

According to KUT:

Jim Gaines has been in the Central Texas real estate business for over thirty years. When asked if the housing market is the worst he’s ever seen it, he laughed and said, “Certainly not. The oil bust in the 80s was far worse.” Texas’ booming oil industry went belly up in the 1980s and dealt a major blow to the economy. Gaines explains that this concept of big boom equals big bust may be the very thing that has saved most of Texas from the current recession.

The rest of the nation started gaining steam through the 1990s, creating the slowly inflating economic bubble; Texas, however, was still licking its wounds from the oil bust so it did not boom along with everyone else. When the bubble burst, Texas was relatively unaffected

So let’s compare 2010 to 2007 with some data compiled by the Austin Board of Realtors:

  • Across the city, per-square-foot prices declined by 3.39 percent. Home prices stagnated, dropping slightly from $315,281 in 2007 to $314,704 in 2010.
  • Within the city limits, the total number of homes sold dropped 26 percent from 10,831 sold in 2007 to 7,997 sold in 2010.
  • Almost every zip code in Austin experienced declines, including highly coveted neighborhoods in West Lake, Tarrytown, Downtown, and around the UT campus.
  • Unemployment in Austin rose from 3.62 percent in 2007 to 7.12 percent in 2010.

In other words, it’s a great time to buy a home in Austin. Overall, the picture is rosy, and a robust recovery seems inevitable. But, currently, steals abound.

Here at Texas Lending, we’re proud to offer a slew of Austin home purchase loan options, as well as Austin home refinance loan options if you already own a home in the capital city and would like to take advantage of historically low Austin home interest rates. Contact our Austin home loan specialists for more information.

Awesome August: Dallas Home Sales Surge

Monday, September 12th, 2011

Two bits of great news about Dallas home ownership in three weeks. What is this strange phenomenon?

According to the Dallas Morning News:

North Texas home sales surged in August by 27 percent — the biggest gain in more than a year. Local real estate agents sold more than 6,800 pre-owned single-family homes last month.

It was one of the highest monthly sales totals recorded since federal homebuying incentives ended in early 2010.

“The low mortgage rates have to be helping,” said James Gaines, an economist with the Real Estate Center. “And Dallas continues to do well businesswise — employment is still going up… This home sales rebound is a lot better than we thought it would be. If the pattern continues, we could be up 10 percent or more for the year.”

August marked the second consecutive month with double-digit increases in home sales for DWF, compared to a year earlier. Condo and townhouse sales were also up 34 percent compared to this time in 2010, according to to the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University and North Texas Real Estate Information Systems.

Well. Alright. Another week highlighted by some good news. We could get used to this.

Of course, we’ve seen a plethora of recovery “false starts” since the housing bubble popped in 2008, and pulled the economy down with it. And there are about a hundred different spots on the horizon where gathering black clouds are gathering to potentially reverse these gains again.Europe and China are both staring down banking crises of their own, which could sink economic recoveries in all corners of the globe — and the U.S. economy seems bent on sliding back toward a recession all on its own.

So it might be a good idea to pounce on these rare windows of opportunity while you can. If you’ve been holding your home off the market until it returns to more normal levels, it might worth a shot to test the Texas housing market again. Because if you can sell, it’s still an extraordinary time to buy.

Our Dallas home interest rates are historically low, and stand to rise again as soon as we see a real recovery. If you need to sell in order to move to another part of Texas, we’re also proud to offer extraordinarily low Austin home interest rates and Houston home interest rates. Contact our Texas home loan specialists for more information.

If Texas Cities Were Countries (i.e. “Why Texas is Awesome.”)

Wednesday, September 7th, 2011

We’re not shy about the fact that Texas is a pretty darn great place to live. We’ve got land. We’ve got BBQ. And we’ve got a state-wide economy the size of all of Canada (no really).

A big part of Texas’ long-term health is the fact that while it’s filled with unique, vibrant communities, anchored by four thriving, truly world-class cities.

So if the Texas economy is as big as our outsized neighbors to the north, just how big are our cities? Let’s take a look:

  • Houston (along with suburbs like Sugar Land and Baytown) = Austria
  • Dallas-Ft. Worth (and all the suburbs in between) = Argentina

According to The Atlantic:

With $378.9 and $376.8 billion in GMP, the Houston and Dallas metros are the world’s 31st and 32nd largest economies. Each is bigger than Austria’s ($375.5), Argentina’s ($368.9), and South Africa’s ($363.7).

Think about that. Argentina is a huge country, and Austria has been rocking since the Ottoman’s rolled out of town. South Africa produces or processes the vast majority of the world’s diamonds. Yet Texas’ big economic hubs match the economic output of each country.

Houston, by itself, is the 31st largest economy in the world. Dallas is no. 32. San Antonio and Austin aren’t far behind.

Here at Texas Lending, we’re proud to make it easy for folks around the country to come join the Lone Star party. In fact, we now offer comprehensive lines of Austin home loans and Houston home loan products to go with our diverse range of Dallas home loans, including:

We’d love to help you make Texas your home — or, of course, if you’re already here, we’d love to help you find a home that better fits your needs. Contact our Texas home loan specialists for more information.

Warning: Good Dallas Housing Market News Ahead

Monday, August 29th, 2011

Stagnating economic recovery. Congressional gridlock. A downgrade of America’s always-sterling credit rating. A Eurozone threatening to huff and puff and blow the entire global economy back into a deep recession.

How about some good news for change? Sure, why not.

Compared to most cities across the country, the Dallas housing market is doing, well, pretty darn good. In fact, according the Dallas Business Journal, we’ve got the second most sizzling housing market in America:

Dallas is ranked second in the nation for residential construction activity behind Houston in the value of privately owned housing constructed last year.

For those projects, Houston posted a collective value of $4.17 billion in 2010, according to data compiled by On Numbers, a feature of American City Business Journals , which is the parent company of the Dallas Business Journal. Dallas put up $3.87 billion worth of new privately owned housing in 2010, according to the data.

Houston and Dallas beat out New York City, the nation’s largest metropolitan area in terms of population, by constructing $3.05 billion of projects in 2010. The figures comprise central cities and their suburbs.

Not bad. As we’ve mentioned in the past, some of the residential construction activity can be credited to an upsurge in home remodeling and home renovation activity. Improving your existing house instead of looking for a new home is a great way to ride out the recession and wait for a more favorable housing market — contact us to learn more about Dallas home equity loans and Dallas home refinance loans that can get you the cash you need to start a home remodel.

Furthermore, Dallas will almost always be a favorable place for new home construction compared to many (more expensive) cities, thanks to abundant land and optimistic demographic trends. At Texas Lending, our Dallas home purchase loans can make it possible to build the home of your dreams.

Obviously, many homeowners across Dallas-Ft. Worth are still feeling the hurt — especially those trying to sell their homes. We’ve still got a long way to go before the home-selling in the Metroplex returns to normal levels. But this does indicate that brighter times are ahead.

“Of course, if reading a bit of good news has become so rare for you that it’s painful, don’t worry. Just focus on the fact that the Dallas housing market is second only to our rivals in—groan—Houston. (Or just check out one of our Houston home loan options to see what the top spot feels like.)

 
 

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