Archive for October, 2010

Facts, Findings, and Kind Words About Texas From Leading Economist

Tuesday, October 26th, 2010

These days, it can’t be easy always being the bringer of such bad news. But even economists—those long-suffering sages of the dismal science—are finding life a little bit easier in Texas.

At least that’s the sentiment echoed by one top home-building economist, speaking in Dallas a couple weeks ago.

“I don’t think I’ll get any tomatoes thrown at me today,” said David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders, last week to a group of Texas home builders, according to the Dallas Morning News . “Be thankful you are in Texas and not in Michigan or southern Florida. Your housing market has not suffered nearly as much as many areas of the country.”

For the most part, Crowe painted a weak, but relatively bright picture about local markets. For example:

– Concerning housing starts, Crowe estimated that 600,000 new projects will break ground nationwide in 2010, up from just 550,000 last year.

– Some regions should be ripe for a construction boom—North Texas is facing a 20-year low on housing inventory of new homes to meet the needs of a young and growing work force—but are hampered by tight credit and anxiety about the future economy.

– There is a glut of available houses, but it exists almost primarily in unsold and foreclosed housing. Nationwide, the new home inventory is at a 42 year low.

Overall, Crowe thinks there’s still more pain to come—even in a bright market like Dallas. According to the DMN:

“What I worry about a lot and particularly in a place like Dallas is that the builders are unable to borrow money to get the stuff on the ground to be ready for when things inevitably turn around,” Crow said. “There is at some point going to be a real pop in new-home demand – particularly in a place like Dallas where the distress isn’t so bad.”

[...] “I think there will still be more builders that fail, unfortunately, because it’s going to be such a slow climb out,” he said. “I tell them to hang in there. It will come. It’s just around the corner.”

So if it’s been a dream to build your own home, now might be the right time to do so. Contact one of our new Dallas home loan mortgage experts for more information.

About Kevin Miller

Kevin Miller, Owner & CEO of TexasLending.com. TexasLending.com provides expert service in the field of residential mortgages.

Time to Buy? Dallas High-End Homes Surge

Monday, October 18th, 2010

Internet Radio A couple weeks ago, we examined some of the dynamics of the Dallas-area housing collapse—specifically, why homes at both ends of spectrum were most prone to foreclosure . Many higher-income folks bought simply too much house, while many lower income homeowners were probably not suitable candidates for home ownership in the first place.

This week, new numbers show that the housing crisis for Dallas homeowners has largely passed for only one of those demographics.

According to The Dallas Morning News :

The housing downturn has lost its hold on the Dallas area’s priciest neighborhoods.

Home sales in the affluent Park Cities area are up 41 percent so far this year – the first year-over-year increase in more than four years.
Sales are also strikingly higher in North Dallas – up 28 percent – and in Westlake, where pre-owned home purchases through the first nine months of 2010 are running a third higher than in the same period last year.

But at the other end of the spectrum, where there’s more affordable housing and lots of distressed properties to pick from, the home sector shakeout roils on. Sales this year are down 25 percent in DeSoto , 17 percent in Cedar Hill and 16 percent in Lancaster .

Two lessons we can draw from these numbers:

If you can afford it, it’s a great time to buy.

As we’ve mentioned over and over again, the market has rarely been better for potential homebuyers—if they don’t have to sell in order to buy, and if they are in financial position (i.e. employed) to do it. Also, an inevitable recovery bounce helps housing remain an at least limitedly attractive investment opportunity (even if we never see a return to pre-collapse growth levels).

“Those that have money are buying because they think this may definitely be the time in terms of pricing. And a lot of people who have money can’t figure out where else to put it,” said Dr. James Gaines, an economist at the Real Estate Center, to the DMN.

Easy access to mortgage loans still matters.

Again, according to the Dallas Morning News:

But buyers looking for low- and moderate-priced homes often don’t have the cash and credit to take advantage of the market, Gaines said. “Some of those buyers are still people having a tough time qualifying for any mortgage money out there,” he said. “They might not have the credit score or the down payment, which is hurting that end of the market.”

Cedar Hill real estate agent Robby Setser, who sells homes in several southern Dallas County markets, says qualifying for a mortgage is an obstacle for some buyers. “It’s still pretty tough, and they are running the borrowers through the wringer,” Setser said. “If you can qualify for a loan, you can get some amazing buys and low payments on your home.

At Texas Lending, we’re devoted to making the homebuying process as easy and painless as possible for potential Dallas homebuyers. And we do it without the shortcuts and shoddy lending practices that helped fuel the housing crisis. We’ll help you clear those hurdles, and end up in house you’ll both love today, and still be able to afford 15 years down the road.

The upshot?

Regardless of reasons why, this recovery is starting at the top. And if you’re a potential homebuyer from that demographic, it might be time to buy. Contact one of our Dallas home mortgage experts to get the process started.

About Kevin Miller

Kevin Miller, Owner & CEO of TexasLending.com. TexasLending.com provides expert service in the field of residential mortgages.

The Recession is Over. Really?

Thursday, October 14th, 2010

If a massive economic recession ends on a technicality in a forest and nobody hears it, did it still end? That’s the mixed metaphor economists began contemplating when the National Bureau of Economic Research announced a few weeks ago that the recession officially and mathematically ended… more than a year ago in June 2009.

According to Time Magazine :

Good news for everyone who has been out of work for months, facing foreclosure or generally struggling to make their bills: The recession is over. The bad news: It has been for a while. The National Bureau of Economic Research, which is the organization that officially designates when a recession starts and when a recession ends, announced today that the Great Recession officially ended in June 2009. Does that mean unemployment will drop anytime soon? Probably not. The weird thing about the NBER is that by its own admission it doesn’t wait until the job market turns around before it calls the end of the recession, from the NBER’s statement:

Second, in previous business cycles, aggregate hours and employment have frequently reached their troughs later than the NBER’s trough date. In particular, in 2001-03, the trough in payroll employment occurred 21 months after the NBER trough date. In 2009, the NBER trough date is 6 months before the trough in payroll employment. In both the 2001-03 and 2009 cycles, household employment also reached its trough later than the NBER trough date.

Three lessons we can take away from this:

1. Economics involves a lot of guessing (and looking back). Despite the best guesses of a lot of really smart people, truly understanding what’s going on inside a crisis takes a lot of time, a lot of statistical research. If you think this is a problem today, consider what Presidents Hoover and Roosevelt were facing during the Great Depression, when they were limited working with ambiguous economic indicators like freight carloads.

2. The Great Recession deserves it’s place in history. Or, as Time puts it: “This recession was/is/will be longer than any in the post WWII period. By the NBER’s calculations, this recession lasted 18 months. That was two months longer than both the recessions in the mid-1970s and the one that started in July 1981.”

3. Stats are helpful and important, but don’t tell us everything. If you’re one of the millions out of work or facing foreclosure, this lesson is obvious. The economy is still in terrible shape despite encouraging signs from certain sectors—like the Dallas housing market . And, naturally, its how all the stats can help regular folks plan their financial futures that matters most.

About Kevin Miller

Kevin Miller, Owner & CEO of TexasLending.com. TexasLending.com provides expert service in the field of residential mortgages.

Dallas Housing Market Collapse – Who’s Effected Most

Monday, October 4th, 2010

Some interesting foreclosure findings were released this week about who, exactly, is bearing the biggest brunt of the Dallas-Ft. Worth housing market collapse.

Of course, on one level, we’re all sharing the pain. According to the Dallas Business Journal :

Both affluent and entry-level homebuyers are bearing the brunt of the recession’s aftermath, according to new foreclosure data compiled by Addison-based Foreclosure Listing Service Inc.

A new report from the firm says 80 percent of the homes posted for foreclosure in a 19-county area in North Texas were priced at $200,000 or below.

The broader impacts make sense—foreclosures from any housing demographic have contributed to the larger housing crisis, which of course has then led to more home foreclosures. In other words, many homeowners who were in homes they could afford and were generally able to keep up on their mortgage payments lost jobs, investments, or pension wages due to the market collapse… and then suddenly found themselves no longer in position to keep up with their payments.

But if we take a closer look at the numbers, we can learn just a little bit more about what types of homes most fueled the crisis.

Again, according to the Dallas Business Journal :

George Roddy, Sr., president of Foreclosure Listing Service, said, “The largest gains in residential foreclosure posting activity were found at opposite ends of the Texas housing market among entry-level homes and ultra-luxury homes.”

Roddy said the largest gain in foreclosure postings over last year was in ultra-luxury homes, where the firm noticed a 27 percent jump in foreclosure posting activity.

[...] “Over the last year, the second highest increase in postings by home value within the study area was found among entry-level or starter homes valued at under $100,000 with a 16 percent gain in foreclosure notices,” Roddy said.

In other words, foreclosures have hit those who either bought too much house, or who probably shouldn’t have bought a house in the first place the worst. Either way, it was easy credit, risky loans, and market pressures to put as many people homes as possible that fueled the crisis.

At Texas Lending, we want to see you make your housing dreams come true. But we don’t want to see that dream become a nightmare, and see you in a situation where a leap of faith and a lot of housing hope ruins your financial future. So our Dallas home mortgage experts will work tirelessly with to get you in the right house—one you love, and one you will still love (and afford) ten or twenty years down the road.

About Kevin Miller

Kevin Miller, Owner & CEO of TexasLending.com. TexasLending.com provides expert service in the field of residential mortgages.

 
 

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