Archive for May, 2010

Looking For Economic Indicators In the Housing Market

Friday, May 28th, 2010

Nearly 100 home runs since he’s left the Rangers, Mark Texeira is still trying to sell his house in Dallas. According to the Wall Street Journal :

Yankee star Mark Teixeira has relisted his Texas home, this time for $4.55 million. The house has been on and off the market since 2007 and was offered most recently, in November, for $5.75 million.

The first baseman started his professional career with the Texas Rangers in 2003. The 8,600-square-foot house, built in 2005, sits on just over an acre overlooking a small lake, in a gated community in a suburb of Dallas-Fort Worth. The master suite has a gas fireplace and a large patio with an infinity-pool style hot tub. The home comes with a pool and a covered patio with an outdoor gas fireplace; an in-home movie theater opens to the patio for outdoor viewing. The gated community, called Vaquero, has a clubhouse restaurant for members, a Tom Fazio-designed golf course and 24-hour guarded gates.

Obviously, Mark’s (much deserved—if you’re still bitter about the slugger yawning at a giant contract offer from the Rangers three years ago) housing woes don’t tell us that much about the Dallas housing market . But unusual and telling indicators abound. Here are just a few:

Rejoicing About Rising Unemployment

It’s the result of a quirk in the way unemployment is calculated . The unemployment rate you hear about all the time only includes people still in the process of looking for a job. If an unemployed person gives up—perhaps to go back to school, to travel, or even just to sit around—they aren’t counted. So when the job market starts to improve, and people start looking again, the unemployment rate can actually rise. That’s how you can get promising economic news (Job losses drop!) paired with less-optimistic employment stats (Unemployment rises!).

As more people return to work—possibly with new degrees in hand—foreclosures are likely to fall.

School Budget Shortfalls

As we mentioned last week, spring is property tax protest season in Dallas (and we don’t mean tea parties). Most homeowners receive their annual property appraisal notices around this time, meaning we get an fantastic flood of housing market statistics. And according to the Dallas Morning News , the crisis aftermath for the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex is significant—Dallas County is seeing a 4.6 percent drop in the preliminary tax roll compared to a year ago, from $174 billion to $166 billion. This means you can expect to see local governments struggling to make ends meet, which, in turn, indicates continued slumps in the housing market as many homeowners owe more than their properties are worth.

Craigslist Couches

The price of couches online on sites like Craigslist matters—well, at least according to some economists (via the Wall Street Journal ):

"It’s not an exact science," [economist Ted Egan] said. But when it comes to data, he said, "more is almost always better than less."

And there is always more. Mr. Egan said he would like to build software to monitor Craigslist prices for furniture, concert tickets, haircuts and other goods and services to measure changes in local prices. The online classified-ads site, he said, would give a quicker and more detailed read than the bimonthly data from the Labor Department.

Advancing technology is changing the makeup of the economy, Mr. Egan said, so "you never know where the green shoots are going to come from."

Of course, you could look just about anything for sale on Craigslist for an economic indicator. But couches more directly equate with movement in and out of houses and apartments.

Then again, increased demand for couches could indicate two opposite things: (1) It could mean more people are moving into new houses (thus needing new furniture). Or (2) with less money to spend, people are buying second-hand furniture (rather than something from a store) from people with an urgent need for cash.

But that’s part of the point: look around, learn, and listen, but take everything with a grain of salt. In the end, all you can do is work hard, invest and spend wisely, and move forward from the Texas housing crisis cautiously. Guessing which way the markets are moving is only part of the game.

Dallas Housing Market: Renting vs Buying

Tuesday, May 25th, 2010

Another week, another piece of good news for housing market. Well… at least if you’re in a robust, buyer-friendly, housing-slump-kickin, family-fantastically-friendly state like Texas.

According to a formula calibrated by Forbes Magazine:

Doing the math means looking at the "capitalization rate" of the house you covet: the estimated rental income the home could produce as a percentage of the purchase price. The higher the cap rate, the more likely that buying will pay off. The Forbes Luxury Residence Rental Index , or Flurry, tracks cap rates for 100 upscale homes in 10 U.S. cities.

The winners?

Houston in first, with a lucrative 4.3 percent capitalization rate in the Tanglewood and River Oaks neighborhoods. And Dallas just behind in second, with a healthy 4.2 percent rate in the Park Cities, Preston Hollow, and Uptown/Turtle Creek neighborhoods. Just go ahead and call us the Loan Star State.

Forbes’ formula brings up a good question. When is it better to buy instead of rent?

First and foremost do the math. Use Forbes’ calculations for guidance, or try this popular formula from NPR :

If you’re trying to decide whether to rent a home or buy one, here’s a useful back-of-the-envelope calculation:

  1. Take the price of a home you’d be likely to buy.
  2. Divide the price by 20.
  3. Compare the result to the annual rent on a comparable home.

If the result is higher than the annual rent, renting is probably a better deal.

A quick example: Take a $500,000 home. If you divide the price by 20, you get $25,000. So if the annual rent is less than $25,000 — that’s a monthly rent of roughly $2,100 — there’s a good chance you’re better off renting.

But consider these kinds of questions, as well:

  • How long do you plan on staying in the house?
  • How fast is the Texas local housing market rising?
  • Is your neighborhood deteriorating?
  • Are you up for the extra burdens of home ownership — things like taxes, upkeep, housing association dues, and (eventually) selling?
  • What home buying tax credits are currently available ?
  • Are current mortgage interest rates climbing or falling?
  • Have you considered the cost of furniture and appliances?

Contact our mortgage experts . We’ll help you decide if the time is right to buy.

How To Protest Property Appraisals in Dallas To Lower Your Property Tax

Monday, May 17th, 2010

The taxman giveth, and the taxman taketh aw…. well, actually, in this case, he really just wants to give. Here’s an opportunity to recoup some of the cash value you might have lost in your home over the past couple of years.

According to the Dallas Morning News :

As property appraisal notices begin to arrive in Dallas County homeowners’ mailboxes this week, the Dallas Central Appraisal District says the county’s preliminary tax roll will shrink 4.7 percent from last year.

That’s welcome news for most homeowners, who will find their property either has dropped in value or remains the same. Only 20 percent of those receiving notices will see higher values this year.

But the drop in the preliminary tax roll from $174 billion in 2009 to $166 billion this year is devastating, if not unexpected, news for governmental agencies that depend on property taxes for revenue like the county, cities and school districts.

Despite the drop in most property values, the appraisal district is bracing for a surge in appraisal protests this year because of property owners’ ability to dispute their values online for the first time.

[…] Homeowners can protest immediately if they think their home value should have been reduced or wasn’t reduced enough because of the weak housing market. Online protests were made possible by a new law that took effect this year for large counties.

Chief Appraiser Ken Nolan has said he expects residential protests to increase this year because of the convenience of protesting online. Last year, a record 72,941 protests were filed – a 50 percent increase from 2003.

"We think we’ve done a good job. But people know more about their property than we do," said Cheryl Jordan, the appraisal district spokeswoman.

So what exactly is this rule change that makes it easier for you to protest home values?

Basically, you’ve always had the right to seek out an adjustment to your property tax payments after a change in the value of your property, but the process has always been a little bit cumbersome. The only change now is that—in Dallas—you can protest online. No traffic. No government offices. No headaches. At TexasLending.com we like to keep things simple, so here are some easy steps you can take to protest your property appraisal online :

  1. Visit the Dallas Central Appraisal District .
  2. If you’re unsure if you qualify, scan this list of potential reasons for protesting .
  3. Search for your property with your owner name, address or account number via the "Search Appraisal" function in the navigation links box to the left of the screen
  4. Click on the “Online Protest” link. This will take you through the steps.

Remember to do all this by the June 1, 2010 deadline.

Despite the tax revenue problems that local governments might face, this is your right, and a smart way to make up some of losses you might have experienced since the housing crisis in Dallas-Ft. Worth started. You shouldn’t have to pay more than your fair share.

It’s risk-free, and an easy opportunity many homeowners will miss. And don’t forget, at Texas Lending we’re always available to answer your questions about the housing market.

Mortgage-Backed Securities and You – Understanding the Housing Market

Tuesday, May 11th, 2010

We like to talk about good news here on the Texas Lending Today mortgage blog . It’s fun. It feels better than talking about bad news. And, let’s face it, after the past couple of years, we all deserve a bit of it. So, with this in mind, let’s start exploring why the news for the Dallas housing market has been slowly improving. And to do that, let’s look a little bit deeper into the dynamics of different parts of the housing economy around the country.

Take a recent development out in California, for example. The mortgage backed security industry finally found someone to believe in it out there, and that could mean big things for the housing market all the way over here in Texas.

According to the Powell Perspective :

For the past two years the mortgage securities market has been filled with crickets. Heavily caught up in the crippling of the residential-housing market, mortgage-backed securities (MBS), especially those offered by private firms, have been unavailable. However, Redwood Trust, Inc., a private firm in California, announced last week that it would sell off $222 million in bonds backed by pools of senior (read: less shaky) mortgages. Not only is the sale good news for investors searching for higher returns, it also could help lower mortgage rates and, in turn, accelerate the residential-housing recovery.

Because of the absence of MBS in the market place, mortgage rates have experienced spouts of modest climbs and spurred government intervention. But, if more companies like Redwood begin to offer MBS, then more investors will be attracted to the market; helping mortgage rates to lower.

When the housing market collapsed, the offering of MBS by private firms shriveled and the market relied on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for any MBS; but those avenues quickly dried also. Both government-controlled entities are prohibited from purchasing “jumbo loans,” which are loans over $730,000. So, since lenders cannot get Fannie and Freddie to purchase jumbo loans, they are forced to charge higher interest rates to those seeking one. But, the Redwood deal could mark the beginning of the end for high rates on jumbo loans.

[...] While Redwood does not stand to make a tremendous amount of money on this deal, the company badly needs to get the market moving again. Being a credible Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), the company lost $1.6 billion in 2007 and 2008 when the securities market constricted and froze. Attracting investors to the MBS market once again could get private capital flowing and benefit the residential-housing market recovery across the board.

So, in other words, mortgage backed securities—those nasty little bank-y things that helped cause the financial crisis—could be key to a more rapid return to a healthy housing market (if they’re handled responsibly, unlike during the run-up to the financial crisis). And Redwood is just the first company since the industry collapsed a couple years ago to test the (non-government) MBS waters, albeit with securities that are much, much safer than the bonds thrown around during the boom.

This might sound a bit fishy. But to understand how they can help, let’s define a few terms and review the dynamics of the economic crisis (eschewing nuance and/ complicating factors, in just four short paragraphs):

Mortgage-backed securities are collections of (often several hundred or more) mortgage debts that are packaged up and sold off as bonds. Investors can buy a bond, expecting to collect the combined debt of all the different mortgages plus interest at a later date. Many of these mortgage-backed bonds were then sliced up again, packaged with slices of other mortgage-backed securities, and traded as what are called collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), basically used by banks to insure huge corporate deposits. By the time you get to this point, there could be bits and pieces of thousands of different mortgages from around the country in a single tradable portfolio.

If these MBSs and CDOs were filled only with safe mortgages that had low risk of default, we probably wouldn’t have seen such a crisis. The bubble wouldn’t have been as large, and the pop wouldn’t have been nearly as painful.

But this all took place during—and helped inflate—a growing housing bubble. Because the mortgage-backed financial products were so lucrative, there was massive market pressure on mortgage companies to loosen their lending standards and give potential "sub-prime" homebuyers massive loans with increasingly fewer standard practices like credit and employment checks. Meanwhile, bond ratings organizations like Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s were assigning Triple A status to many of these bonds, encouraging otherwise cautious and risk-averse investors like pension funds to jump into the derivatives game.

Eventually, thousands upon thousands of these homeowners began defaulting on their giant, unrealistic loans. And as the bubble began to pop, all the CDOs and MBSs saw their value begin to evaporate. Then every bank and pension fund out there that had invested heavily in these products began taking on massive losses. Panic and uncertainty soared, credit markets for small businesses and potential homeowners began to dry up, and the crisis moved from beyond just housing and banking and into the general U.S. and global economy. Aspects (that we won’t get into here today) like credit default swaps, shadow banking, major short selling, certain nefarious players, and systemic market irrationalities only complicated and amplified the problems.

So how could movement in the MBS market affect you? Let’s go back to the original intent of the system.

Increased liquidity equals cheaper mortgages . The reason banks were packaging and selling off mortgages in the first place was to free up a bunch of money and then lend again to more homeowners. When banks can sell the debts rather than waiting several years to fully collect on them themselves, it speeds up the home loan cycle . This kind of fluidity tends to lower home loan interest rates for potential homeowners or sellers like you — especially for large loans not eligible for Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. And that’s the point — managed responsibly, our robust, largely free-market financial system exists not just to enrich the people running it, but for things like putting people in homes and allowing small businesses to grow. Again, if it’s managed responsibly.

Here’s hoping this Redwood Trust move is a step in the right direction.

 
 

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